Project your nest egg, identify your monthly savings target, and see whether you're on track to retire on your terms.
Most retirement calculators lie to you by accident. They model averages. Real retirements are not average — they're shaped by the specific decade you happen to retire into. Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can finish with wildly different outcomes if the timing of the bad years differs. This page builds on the standard accumulation math, then layers in the parts that actually decide whether the plan holds up in practice.
The simplest and most widely-used target is 25 times your annual retirement spending, after subtracting guaranteed income from Social Security and pensions. The 25× multiplier is just the inverse of a 4% safe withdrawal rate: $1 of annual spending ÷ 0.04 = $25 of required portfolio.
The right move is to subtract guaranteed income before applying the multiplier. If you spend $60,000 a year but Social Security covers $26,000, your portfolio only needs to fund the remaining $34,000 × 25 = $850,000. That's a markedly different planning problem than "I need $1.5 million."
In 1994, financial planner William Bengen published the "SAFEMAX" study in the Journal of Financial Planning. Using rolling 30-year windows of U.S. market data from 1926 to 1976, he tested whether a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate from a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio could survive every starting period — including those that began with the 1929 crash, the 1966 stagflation, and the 1973–74 bear market. Every period made it to 30 years; some made it well beyond. Hence "4% as a safe floor."
Newer research has refined the picture. The 1998 Trinity Study extended Bengen's work and confirmed similar success rates. Morningstar's 2023 update argues that today's lower bond yields and higher equity valuations warrant a more conservative 3.7% to 4.0% starting rate for new 30-year retirements. Dynamic "guardrail" strategies from Guyton and Klinger allow higher starting rates (4.5% to 5.0%) by adjusting spending after bad years and good years.
The calculator above runs this same math instantly. If the result shows a gap, the "Required Monthly Saving to Hit Target" field tells you the exact contribution increase that closes it.
Fidelity's widely-cited rule of thumb expresses retirement readiness as a multiple of your current salary:
| Age | Savings target (× current salary) | Example at $90K salary |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1× | $90,000 |
| 35 | 2× | $180,000 |
| 40 | 3× | $270,000 |
| 45 | 4× | $360,000 |
| 50 | 6× | $540,000 |
| 55 | 7× | $630,000 |
| 60 | 8× | $720,000 |
| 67 | 10× | $900,000 |
Source: Fidelity Investments retirement savings guidelines, with examples added.
Source: IRS Notice 2024-80 and SSA 2026 fact sheet.
Two retirees can have identical 30-year average annual returns yet end in completely different places. The accumulation phase doesn't care about the order — a 7% average is 7% whether the good years come first or last. The decumulation phase cares enormously, because withdrawals from a portfolio that just lost 25% are coming out of a smaller base than withdrawals from a portfolio that's still at the start.
Three practical mitigations:
If you retire before 65 and aren't covered under a spouse's plan, you'll need to bridge to Medicare through the ACA marketplace or a private plan. Premiums for a healthy 60-year-old couple in 2026 average $1,500 to $2,400 a month before subsidies, plus deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums. ACA subsidies (premium tax credits) are based on modified adjusted gross income, so retirees who can manage MAGI under 400% of the federal poverty line often qualify for substantial subsidies.
For those staying employed through 65, Medicare Parts A and B begin at age 65 with monthly premiums of about $185 in 2026, plus Part D drug coverage and an optional Medigap policy. Total Medicare-era healthcare costs typically run $5,000 to $9,000 per person per year, climbing with inflation.
FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) is a strategy of saving 50% to 70% of income to retire decades before the traditional age. Common variants:
The 4% rule is the math underneath every flavor. The places it strains: 50-year time horizons (the rule was tested for 30), early retirees with no Social Security floor, and households without a healthcare bridge. Plan for 35% to 40% larger portfolios than the simple 25× multiplier suggests if you're retiring before 50.
Yes. Your target annual income, Social Security benefit, and post-retirement withdrawals are all inflated forward at the rate you input. Compare the nominal nest egg result to the inflation-adjusted target to see whether your purchasing power stays intact.
Move directly to the Roth IRA (or Traditional IRA if you'll be in a lower bracket in retirement). Without an employer match, the 401(k) loses its top-priority status; the order becomes HSA → Roth IRA → 401(k) → taxable brokerage.
Each year you delay beyond your full retirement age adds about 8% to the benefit, all the way to age 70. For most healthy retirees with reasonable longevity (mid-80s or later), delaying to 70 is mathematically the highest-expected-value choice. Health status, marital strategy, and need for cash flow can override that default.
For traditional retirement accounts in 2026, RMDs begin at age 73 (rising to 75 in 2033 under SECURE 2.0). Roth IRAs have no RMDs during the original owner's lifetime. Designated Roth 401(k) accounts no longer have RMDs starting in 2024.
Monte Carlo tools model thousands of possible market paths to estimate the probability your plan survives. They're far better than averages for understanding tail risk. This calculator uses a single average-return assumption; pair it with a Monte Carlo tool (Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, and Empower all offer free versions) for sequence-risk testing.
It's possible but typically requires a larger portfolio than a total-return approach. Index-heavy dividend strategies in the U.S. yield around 1.5% to 2.5% currently. A $2 million dividend-only retirement at 2% yield generates $40,000 — versus a total-return approach pulling 4% from the same portfolio for $80,000 sustainably.
It models pre-tax accumulation and pre-tax withdrawals. To approximate after-tax results, multiply withdrawals by (1 − effective tax rate). For more precision use a tax-aware Monte Carlo tool or work with a CFP® on a withdrawal-sequencing plan that draws from Roth, Traditional, and taxable buckets in optimal order.
Optimistic return assumptions. Plugging in 10% nominal returns based on the past decade's bull market is the single most common error — it underestimates the required savings rate by half. Always model 6% to 7% real (4% to 5% real post-retirement) and treat anything better as upside.
Editorial note: This calculator and the accompanying article are educational and do not constitute personalized investment, tax, or retirement advice. Returns from any specific portfolio are not guaranteed, and historical patterns do not predict future results. For decisions that affect your specific situation, work with a fiduciary CFP® or fee-only retirement planner. Last reviewed by David Roehrig, ChFC®, on March 1, 2026.